高华证券通胀下的周期板块只选上游不选中游源泉

高华证券：通胀下的周期板块——只选上游不选中游 类别： 机构： 研究员：

均支持5模11频全球漫游[摘要]

January22,2010China:Metals&MiningGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch1January22,2010China:Metals&MiningPositionforinflationacceleration/policytightening,preferupstreamMoresignsofgrowthstrength,moresignsofinflationacceleration(1)Commoditypriceshavesurged20%sincethebeginningof4Q09asdemandgrowthaccelerates;seeourNov6reporttitled“Takingthepulseofconstructionvaluechain;growthaccelerating”.(2)Withhighergrowth,lfillmentatonemajorrailwaybureauhasspikedto2.5:1comparedto1:1fulfillmentin4Q08andbelow50%utilization.(3)okformarginsecurity,whichvariesalongthevaluechain(1)Upstreamsectorslikelytohavebetterpricingpower,althoughrisingdemandisgenerallypositiveforallcommodityprices.(2)Midstreamprocessing(steel/aluminum/cement),couldfacemarginpressureontwofronts:Rawmaterialcostpressurefromupstreamanddemandimpactofpotentialpolicytightening.(3)Analysisofprevioustwocycles(2003/04and2006/08)shows：

-UpstreamcoalindustrymarginspeakedmonthsafterCPI.-Thepeakinmidstreamprocessing(steel/metal)marginsalmostcoincidedwithCPIrisingabove3%,butprecededCPI’okformultipleprotectionaspathgetsbumpierandriskrises(1)Ouranalysisoftwopreviouscyclesshowsthepeakinequitymultiplesforprocessingsub-sectorslargelycoincidedwiththemarginpeakandwhenCPIhit%.CurrentlyChalco/JXC/rstandarddeviation(SD)screenshowsJXCandConchnowtradeabove1SD(excluding2007’sunsustainablevaluations).(2)Sub-sectorswithundemandingmultiples/earningsvisibility,al,M’ssharepricehitnewhighsinMay2008,7monthsposttheOct2007marketpeak,3monthsaftertheCPIpeak.(3)Stockactions:AddYCM(H)toCL-Buy,Chalco(H)upgradeShenhua(A)/ChinaCoal(A)toBuy,downgradeChalco/JXC/ConchtoSell,downgradeAngang/Magang/reviseour2009E-2011Eearningsby-48%to+34%andlower12-mTPsby2%-44%.MidstreammarginandvaluationpeakbeforeCPIMidstreamprocessingmarginUpstreamminingmarginChinainflation(rightscale)Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Margin%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05CPIyoy%ChalcoP/EYanzhouCoalP/EChinainflation(rightscale)Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08P/E(X)2%3%4%5%6%7%8%Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05CPIyoy%WedowngradethemidstreamprocessingnamesHK$/10.06.%9.%NeutralSell*16.011.%14.%18.512.%18.%40.026.%38.%0%36.7536%0%32.8229%0%13.6040%0%13.3328%NeutralBuy